Davis, QJE 2004 (1790-1915); Miron and Romer, JEH 1990 (1916-1918); Federal Reserve, 1919-2011.
J.M. Keynes (Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren, 1930):
The prevailing world depression, the enormous anomaly of unemployment in a world full of wants, the disastrous mistakes we have made, blind us to what is going on under the surface - to the true interpretation of things. For I predict that both of the two opposed errors of pessimism which now make so much noise in the world will be proved wrong in our own time - the pessimism of the revolutionaries who think that things are so bad that nothing can save us but violent change, and the pessimism of the reactionaries who consider the balance of our economic and social life so precarious that we must risk no experiments.