Wednesday, December 29, 2010

Cowen on Finance and Inequality

In his American Interest essay, "The Inequality That Matters," Tyler Cowen offers a number of reasons not to be too troubled by the general rise in income inequality over the last 30 years (not surprising given his generally libertarian-ish outlook).  As he notes, much of the increase in inequality is really occuring within the top 1% of incomes, and much of that is driven by the financial sector.  That, according to Cowen, is where the real problem lies. Along the way he also offers one of the best nutshell explanations for why financial sector incomes exploded to such monsterous proportions:
The first factor driving high returns is sometimes called by practitioners “going short on volatility.” Sometimes it is called “negative skewness.” In plain English, this means that some investors opt for a strategy of betting against big, unexpected moves in market prices. Most of the time investors will do well by this strategy, since big, unexpected moves are outliers by definition. Traders will earn above-average returns in good times. In bad times they won’t suffer fully when catastrophic returns come in, as sooner or later is bound to happen, because the downside of these bets is partly socialized onto the Treasury, the Federal Reserve and, of course, the taxpayers and the unemployed. 
To this mix we can add the fact that many money managers are investing other people’s money. If you plan to stay with an investment bank for ten years or less, most of the people playing this investing strategy will make out very well most of the time. Everyone’s time horizon is a bit limited and you will bring in some nice years of extra returns and reap nice bonuses. And let’s say the whole thing does blow up in your face? What’s the worst that can happen? Your bosses fire you, but you will still have millions in the bank and that MBA from Harvard or Wharton. For the people actually investing the money, there’s barely any downside risk other than having to quit the party early. Furthermore, if everyone else made more or less the same mistake (very surprising major events, such as a busted housing market, affect virtually everybody), you’re hardly disgraced. You might even get rehired at another investment bank, or maybe a hedge fund, within months or even weeks. 
Like Keynes said:
A sound banker, alas, is not one who foresees danger and avoids it, but one who, when he is ruined, is ruined in a conventional way along with his fellows, so that no one can really blame him.
Back to Cowen:
In short, there is an unholy dynamic of short-term trading and investing, backed up by bailouts and risk reduction from the government and the Federal Reserve. This is not good. “Going short on volatility” is a dangerous strategy from a social point of view. For one thing, in so-called normal times, the finance sector attracts a big chunk of the smartest, most hard-working and most talented individuals. That represents a huge human capital opportunity cost to society and the economy at large. But more immediate and more important, it means that banks take far too many risks and go way out on a limb, often in correlated fashion. When their bets turn sour, as they did in 2007–09, everyone else pays the price.


stock trading said...

Cowen’s not really engaging with arguments about the origin of the crisis per se, but more so why both before and after the crisis finance is taking all the money.

Frank in midtown said...

The rise in income inequality has its roots in the failure of communism in the market place of ideas. The capitalist market offering has been modified in the face of a competitor's failure, the goodies they gave out so you won't be a communist are going, going, gone. As to the income growth in the finance sector, the US trade deficit in goods and services has an offsetting trade surplus in dollar denominated financial goods. I have always gotten a good chuckle out of finance guys who fret over the "trade deficit."