Real GDP fell at an annual rate of 6.1% in the first quarter, according to the BEA's advance estimate. This follows a 6.3% rate of decline in the fourth quarter of 2008...(Note: "annual rate" means that the pace of decline would result in a fall of 6.1% over a year, not that GDP decreased 6.1% in the first three months of the year).
The reaction from James Hamilton at Econbrowser, Catherine Rampell at Economix and Justin Fox of Curious Capitalist includes a couple of hopeful signs: while investment plummeted (fixed investment fell at a 37.9% rate), consumption began to pick up, increasing at a 2.2% rate (durable goods purchases rose at a 9.4% clip). Also, a significant part of the fall was accounted for by a decrease in inventories, which would suggest firms may need to start increasing production.
Of course, the data are subject to revision... we'll get the "preliminary" estimate on May 29.
Thursday, April 30, 2009
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