Neoclassical Trade Theory and Globalization Backlash

The same standard neoclassical trade theory that underlies many economists' arguments about the gains from trade also implies that those gains will be distributed unevenly. In the Guardian, Jared Bernstein and Josh Bivens write:

Last February, before the flurry of news stories about unsafe imports, a New York Times/CBS poll [PDF] found that 51% of respondents agreed the US had "lost more than it gained from globalisation." Further, while trade is not supposed to create political problems for Republicans, a recent Wall Street Journal poll of Republican supporters found that that 59% agreed that "foreign trade has been bad for the US".

These results are clearly alarming to many in the elite policymaking class, for whom protectionism seems to be the first-order threat to the American economy.

These poll results, however, should not surprise anyone who understands the economics of trade. Chapter one of the trade textbook was essentially written by David Ricardo, and it does indeed teach that trade, on the basis of comparative advantage, typically boosts a nation's average income. This genuinely powerful insight explains why, even if we're more productive than a potential trading partner, or they're able to produce with much lower wage costs, trade will raise national income in both countries.

Sadly, both for American workers and the quality of the trade debate, the textbook has other chapters. One of them explains the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem (SST), which points out that when the US exports insurance services and aircraft while importing apparel and electronics, we are implicitly selling capital - physical and human - for labour. This exchange bids up capital's price (profits and high-end salaries) and bids down wages for the broad working and middle-class, leading to rising inequality and downward wage pressure for many Americans.

Note that this is not just a story about laid-off factory workers, who obviously suffer the toughest losses. Rather, all workers in the US economy who resemble import-displaced workers in terms of education, skills, and credentials are affected. Landscapers won't lose their jobs to imports, but their wages are lowered through competition with those import-displaced factory workers.

To be sure, the theory is clear that there are gains from trade - but there is also a change in relative factor prices (i.e. the returns to capital and wages of different types of labor). So while total income rises, this does not necessarily mean that the income of the median worker rises.

Dani Rodrik makes an interesting point about the selective use of neoclassical theory in arguments about trade policy:

The workhorse model of international trade (the 2x2 Heckscher-Ohlin model) has very stark implications for the effect of trade with poor, labor-abundant countries. Low-skilled workers in rich countries (read the U.S.) must end up as losers--not in relative terms, but in absolute terms. Moreover, the larger the overall gains from trade, the bigger must this adverse distributional effect be. In that world, it is inconsistent to claim there are large gains from globalization while downplaying the distributional impacts. Which is why many economists teach the model in their classrooms, but shift to other, more complicated models when they engage in the public debate about the effect of trade on wages.

Brad DeLong adds two useful points to the discussion:

For competition to be head-to-head, the two countries have to be making very similar goods with similar production processes. Hand-spinners in Pakistan don't compete with labor here in the United States but with the capital embodied in our large automated spinning mills.

That is, the neoclassical "no factor intensity reversals" assumption is violated. Also,

What trade does to our distribution of income can be undone by normal domestic redistributionist policies. The right way to deal with the issue is to (a) maximize the third world's ability to take advantage of our demand to spur its own growth, and (b) use domestic redistribution here to compensate for any adverse distributional impact.

In general, as elegant as it is, the neoclassical theory has not worked well when tested against the data (e.g. Trefler, "The Case of the Missing Trade and Other Mysteries," Am. Econ. Rev., 1995). Therefore we need to be cautious when using it to make the case for the gains from trade, or to raise distributional concerns.

Hairshirt Economics

With the bad news from the housing market, stock market and oil prices, and mixed signals from the labor market, there's some concern that a recession may be in the offing (or, given the "recognition lag," perhaps already underway...). Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson makes a case that a recession may actually be a good thing:

Recessions also have often-overlooked benefits. They dampen inflation. In weak markets, companies can't easily raise prices or workers' wages. Similarly, recessions punish reckless financial speculation and poor corporate investments. Bad bets don't pay off. These disciplining effects contribute to the economy's long-term strength, but it seems coldhearted to say so because the initial impact is hurtful.

The Economist made a similar argument in August:

The economic and social costs of recession are painful: unemployment, lower wages and profits, and bankruptcy. These cannot be dismissed lightly. But there are also some purported benefits. Some economists believe that recessions are a necessary feature of economic growth. Joseph Schumpeter argued that recessions are a process of creative destruction in which inefficient firms are weeded out. Only by allowing the “winds of creative destruction” to blow freely could capital be released from dying firms to new industries. Some evidence from cross-country studies suggests that economies with higher output volatility tend to have slightly faster productivity growth. Japan's zero interest rates allowed “zombie” companies to survive in the 1990s. This depressed Japan's productivity growth, and the excess capacity undercut the profits of other firms.

Another “benefit” of a recession is that it purges the excesses of the previous boom, leaving the economy in a healthier state. The Fed's massive easing after the dotcom bubble burst delayed this cleansing process and simply replaced one bubble with another, leaving America's imbalances (inadequate saving, excessive debt and a huge current-account deficit) in place. A recession now would reduce America's trade gap as consumers would at last be forced to trim their spending. Delaying the correction of past excesses by pumping in more money and encouraging more borrowing is likely to make the eventual correction more painful. The policy dilemma facing the Fed may not be a choice of recession or no recession. It may be a choice between a mild recession now and a nastier one later.

Keynes recognized the potential for "excesses" in boom times. In chapter 22 of the General Theory he wrote:

It may, of course, be the case - indeed it is likely to be - that the illusions of the boom cause particular types of capital-assets to be produced in such excessive abundance that some part of the output is, on any criterion, a waste of resources; - which sometimes happens, we may add, even when there is no boom. It leads, that is to say, to misdirected investment. But over and above this it is an essential characteristic of the boom that investments which will in fact yield, say, 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment are made in the expectation of a yield of; say, 6 per cent., and are valued accordingly. When the disillusion comes, this expectation is replaced by a contrary "error of pessimism", with the result that the investments, which would in fact yield 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment, are expected to yield less than nothing; and the resulting collapse of new investment then leads to a state of unemployment in which the investments, which would have yielded 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment, in fact yield less than nothing. We reach a condition where there is a shortage of houses, but where nevertheless no one can afford to live in the houses that there are.

His prescription quite the opposite of letting the downturn "purge the rottenness out of the system," as Andrew Mellon, Hoover's Treasury Secretary put it. Keynes continues:

Thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest! For that may enable the so-called boom to last. The right remedy for the trade cycle is not to be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-boom.

Matthew Yglesias found another relevant Keynes reference (and the first comment on his post has more on the parallel between Samuelson's argument and Mellon's view, which is also noted by Krugman).

Energy Deregulation's Hidden Virtue?

The electricity market was once highly regulated (e.g. prices set by government commissions) on the grounds that utilities are natural monopolies. In recent years, a number of states have de-regulated their energy markets.

The result? Higher prices. The NY Times reports:

Retail electricity prices have risen much more in states that adopted competitive pricing than in those that have retained traditional rates set by the government, new studies based on years of price reports show.

Of course, if there are negative externalities associated with electricity consumption - i.e. global warming-causing carbon emissions - higher prices are a good thing! The de-regulation acts like a stealth carbon tax (except no revenue for the government). Ahh... now I realize that all the politicians, "free market" types and energy lobbyists who pushed deregulation were engaged in a conspiracy to help the environment (no wonder Cheney kept those meetings secret!).

The Economist's Free Exchange blog makes a similar point here.

Dissed by Supermodel

You know your currency is in trouble when you see reports like this - Bloomberg reports:

Gisele Bundchen wants to remain the world's richest model and is insisting that she be paid in almost any currency but the U.S. dollar....

When Bundchen, 27, signed a contract in August to represent Pantene hair products for Cincinnati-based Procter & Gamble Co., she demanded payment in euros, according to Veja, Brazil's biggest weekly magazine. She'll also get euros for the deal she reached last October with Dolce & Gabbana SpA in Milan to promote the Italian designer's new fragrance, The One, Veja reported. Bundchen earned $33 million in the year through June, Forbes reported in July.

"Contracts starting now are more attractive in euros because we don't know what will happen to the dollar,'' Patricia Bundchen, the model's twin sister and manager in Brazil, said in a telephone interview in September from Sao Paulo.

A "hot money outflow," indeed.

Update: The story may not actually be true (hat tip to EconoSpeak)

Health Care Numbers

The US spends much more on health care than other high-income countries, and generally achieves outcomes that are, if anything, worse (e.g. lower life expectancy). Greg Mankiw looks on the bright side: in the NY Times, he argues that some of the facts cited by critics of the US system are misleading. Dean Baker and Mark Thoma were all over this one.

Update (11/6): Speaking of worse outcomes, The American Prospect's Ezra Klein offers "Ten Reasons Why American Health Care Is so Bad," from a recent comparative study (hat tip: Economist's View).

Update 2 (11/6): On his blog, Mankiw responds to some of the criticisms.

October Employment Report

On Friday, the BLS released its October "Employment Situation Summary." The report contains information from surveys of firms ("establishments") and households. Once again there is a disparity. According to the establishment survey, employment rose by 166,000 in October, but the household survey indicated a decline of 250,000. The household survey also reveals a decline in labor force participation, as 211,000 people are estimated to have left the labor force.

So, what's going on? Floyd Norris explains why the job gains in the establishment survey data may be a figment of the BLS's methodology. Econbrowser's James Hamilton cuts through the month-to-month noise by looking at the 12-month changes in both numbers, and says "all of this leaves me with the impression of an economy in which employment continues to grow, though not quickly enough to prevent the unemployment rate from rising." Dean Baker argues that the best indicator is the employment-population ratio (and notes that Bernanke has made the same argument):

One of the peculiarities of this cycle is that labor market weakness has expressed itself far more in declining labor force participation rather than measured unemployment. The difference is that the unemployed tell surveyors that they are looking for jobs, whereas to not be counted in the labor force people say that they are neither employed nor looking for work. It doesn't seem plausible that 1.4 million people have just decided that they no longer feel like having a job, so presumably their decision to drop out reflects labor market weakness.

While the employment report was mixed, at best, the BEA reported quite healthy real GDP growth. Their "advance estimate" (subject to revision) for the third quarter (July-September) was a 3.9% annual rate of growth, with gains in consumption, exports and government purchases more than offsetting the decrease in residential fixed investment resulting from the decline in the housing market.

How should a central bank respond to such contradictory signals? In the statement announcing the cut in the fed funds target rate (which came out on Wednesday, after the BEA report, but before the BLS report), the FOMC said:

The Committee judges that, after this action, the upside risks to inflation roughly balance the downside risks to growth. The Committee will continue to assess the effects of financial and other developments on economic prospects and will act as needed to foster price stability and sustainable economic growth.

Or, as the Magic 8-ball might say, "reply hazy, try again."

Intermediate Micro (Donkey Edition)

Late in Tuesday's Democratic presidential debate, Brian Williams gave some of the candidates a chance show off their intermediate microeconomics knowledge (or lack thereof).

We learn that Chris Dodd understands externalities (and what to do about them). From the transcript:

MR. WILLIAMS: ...Are you truly prepared to lead on a national scale the kind of sacrifice it would require where it intersects with the environment?

SEN. DODD: Well, I think you've got to -- I find it somewhat startling here that Ronald Reagan's former secretary of State and George Bush's first economic -- chief economic adviser are, frankly, more courageous and bold on energy policy than my fellow competitors here for this job, the presidency.

I've called for a corporate carbon tax. All of us share the same goals here of achieving energy independence, reducing our dependency on fossil fuels and the carbons they emit. But you're not going to achieve that unless you deal with price, quite frankly, here...

The advisor he refers to is Greg Mankiw, who advocates "Pigouvian" taxes.

The next question went to John Edwards, who must have missed the class on moral hazard (perhaps he had a bad hair day):

MR. WILLIAMS: Senator Edwards, should there be a bottomless well of federal dollars for people who knowingly live in areas of this country that are disaster prone to rebuild their homes if lost in a disaster?

MR. EDWARDS: Well, I think that when families are devastated -- and we've lived with this in North Carolina because we've been regularly hit by hurricanes, and I've spent an awful lot of time in New Orleans. When families are hit by natural disasters, I think it is for the national community to be there for them. I think that's our joint responsibility as a national community to be there for them.

I would have been very keen to learn Mike Gravel's views on resale price maintenance, but, alas, he was not invited. Its not the same without him.

Rangel Tax Reform Proposal

Charles Rangel, the Chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee has proposed a tax reform plan (press release; Washington Post story). Although its not expected to pass this year, it may be an indication of where tax policy will go if/when there is a Democratic administration.

The plan is intended to be "revenue neutral" - the tax cuts in the plan are balanced by tax increases, so the total amount of revenue coming in stays the same. The plan would eliminate the Alternative Minimum Tax (see earlier post), and make up some of the revenue by increasing the marginal income tax rate on high earners. It would also eliminate a loophole on "carried interest" that has allowed some fund managers to treat their income as "capital gains" (thereby paying a much lower rate). The "standard deduction" - i.e. the tax deduction you get just for being you - would be increased by $425 ($850 for married couples). Modifications of the earned income tax credit and refundable child credit would benefit low-income households. As for corporations, the top corporate tax rate would be cut, but some loopholes would be closed.

The Journal's Real Time Economics blog has reactions from several economists. In the Washington Post, the Brookings Institution's Jason Furman praised the corporate tax provisions. The Tax Policy Center analyzed the distributional effects (summarized here by Mankiw).

Will Exports Prevent a Recession?

The troubles in the housing market create the risk of a recession for the US economy - a decrease in homebuilding reduces the "residential" part of investment, and the decrease in household wealth may reduce consumption (this effect is apparent in this NY Times story on the share prices of department stores). However, aggregate demand is getting a push in the opposite direction from net exports, as the declining dollar has increased foreign sales of US-made goods. Will this save us from a recession? At Econbrowser, Menzie Chinn has an interesting look at the historical evidence.

German Efficiency?

According to this fascinating NY Times story, in Germany, it is illegal to sell new books at a discount. This regulation helps keep small, independent bookstores and publishers in business:

In the United States chain stores have largely run neighborhood bookshops out of business. Here in Germany, there are big and small bookstores seemingly on every block. The German Book Association counts 4,208 bookstores among its members. It estimates that there are 14,000 German publishers. Last year 94,716 new titles were published in German. In the United States, with a population nearly four times bigger, there were 172,000 titles published in 2005.

At first glance, this is economically inefficient - high-cost retailers are not driven out of business, economies of scale are not realized, and Germans pay too much for their books. Three reasons come to mind about why the German regulations might make economic sense (i.e. improve overall welfare):

1. People like having bookstores in their neighborhood, and enjoy spending time there (even if they don't buy anything), and like variety, so the small bookstores have a positive externality for consumers.
   
2. A positive externality for national culture (which seems to be the argument of most of the people quoted in the story).
   
3. The utility of the producers themselves. Our customary models of profit maximizing firms ignore the obvious fact that many people - and I suspect this is particularly true of many small business proprietors - are motivated more by a sense of pride and accomplishment in their own work, than by wages.

The Germans are concerned by a recent decision by the Swiss competition commission to allow discounting. The director of the commission said:

It was a cartel. The German and Swiss booksellers said it was for a good purpose — they made a cultural argument, but we are an economic commission. They said the system fosters a broader, deeper market for books, that discounting will hurt the small booksellers who support the small publishers, and then you will have fewer books and more focus on best sellers...

I’m not quite sure they’re completely wrong. Nobody knows for sure yet. But nobody can read one million titles, so the question is, is it better that more people read fewer books or that fewer people read a lot of different books?

That's a good - and difficult to answer - question. However, being an "economic commission" is not a reason to disregard a cultural argument - good economic policy should be about improving the well-being of people ("welfare" or "utility"), much of which derives from difficult to quantify, non-pecuniary sources.